基于决策电网投资效益评价模型分析与设计
来源:用户上传
作者:杨俊义 高骞 洪宇 孙小磊 朱前进
摘要：为实现对电网投资效益的科学评价和预测，利用决策模型，提出一种电网投资效益评价方法。根据电网投资效益评价相关需求，构建相应的关联属性集，同时，利用关联特征融合法，对相关模糊属性特征进行科学分解处理，采用定量递归分析法，完成对递归图的构造，该递归图可以精确地表示出电网投资效益数据集。采用决策树分析法，对递归图进行规则性分析，得出系统、完整的电网投资效益评价数据集，并从这些数据集中选出相应的图谱特征量。采用相关性检验分析法，对最终评价样本进行回归分析，提高电网投资效益评价和预测能力。仿真结果表明：所提出的电网投资效益评价方法具有较高的可靠性和可行性，提高了效益评价定量分析能力。
关键词：决策模型;电网;投资效益;评价;预测;定量递归分析
中图分类号：F406.7文献标识码：A文章编号：1001-5922（2022）06-0143-05
Analysis and design of power grid investment benefit evaluation based on decision model
YANG Junyi GAO Qian HONG Yu SUN Xiaolei ZHU Qianjin
（1.State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.， Ltd.， Nanjing 210000， China;
2. State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.， Ltd.， Lianyungang branch，Lianyungang 222000， Jiangsu China;
3. State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.， Ltd.， Maintenance branch， Nanjing 210000， China;
4. State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.， Ltd.， Suqian Branch， Suqian 223800， Jiangsu China）
Abstract：In order to realize the scientific evaluation and prediction of power grid investment benefit， a power grid investment benefit evaluation method is proposed by using the decision model. According to the relevant requirements of power grid investment benefit evaluation， the corresponding correlation attribute set is constructed. At the same time， the correlation feature fusion method is used to scientifically decompose the relevant fuzzy attribute features， and the quantitative recursive analysis method is used to complete the construction of the recursive graph， which can accurately represent the power grid investment benefit data set. The decision tree analysis method is used to analyze the regularity of the recursive graph， and a systematic and complete data set of power grid investment benefit evaluation is obtained， and the corresponding map feature quantities are selected from these data sets. The correlation test analysis method is used to carry out regression analysis on the final evaluation samples， so as to improve the evaluation and prediction ability of power grid investment benefits. The simulation results show that the proposed method has high reliability and feasibility， and improves the quantitative analysis ability of benefit evaluation.
Key words：
decision-making model; power grid; investment benefit; evaluation; prediction; quantitative recursive analysis
近年，在我电网经济水平的不断提高下，电网企业表现出较高的投资积极性，这无疑增加了企业投资效益，使得电网企业投资规模呈现出不断增加的趋势，为此，我国对电网投资效益评价结果的精确性提出了更高的要求。在决策模型的应用背景下，为了提高电网企业的投资效益评价能力，促进电网企业健康、可持续发展，如何对电网投资效益评价模型进行科学地分析和设计是技术人员必须思考和解决的问题。
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