基于Wiener过程退化模型的高压阀寿命预测
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作者:张子剑,赵佳琳,常增柱,唐庆
摘要 高压阀泄漏量的退化机理复杂,退化具有动态、周期性、非线性等特征,对高可靠、长寿命的高压阀准确进行寿命预测是一个难点。本研究开展高压阀的模拟试验,获取高压阀泄漏量退化过程的数据,基于Wiener过程对高压阀建立寿命预测模型,根据可靠性函数和剩余寿命的概率密度函数对高压阀的剩余寿命进行评估。结果表明基于Wiener过程的泄漏量的退化模型对高压阀寿命预测与实际试验测量的寿命值的误差均在10%以内。与ARIMA模型预测的高压阀寿命对比,基于Wiener过程的泄漏量的退化模型对高压阀的寿命预测更稳定、误差更小,证明了Wiener过程退化模型在预测高压阀寿命工作中的有效性和准确性。
关 键 词 高压阀;Wiener过程退化模型;ARIMA模型;寿命预测
中图分类号 TH69 文献标志码 A
Life prediction of high-pressure valve based on Wiener process degradation model
ZHANG Zijian1,2, ZHAO Jialin3, CHANG Zengzhu3, TANG Qing3
(1. School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China;2. Tianjin navigation instrument research institute,Tianjin 300091, China;3. China Institution Marine Technology &Economy, Beijing 100081, China)
Abstract High-pressure valve leakage degradation data has dynamic, periodic and non-linear characteristics, and its degradation mechanism is complex, making accurate life prediction for highly reliable and long-life high-pressure valves a challenging task. We performed the simulation tests on high-pressure valves to obtain data on the degradation process of high-pressure valve leakage, developed a life prediction model for high-pressure valves based on the Wiener process, and evaluated the remaining life of high-pressure valves based on the reliability function and the probability density function of remaining life in this study. The mistakes are less than 10%. Further, the degradation model based on the leakage of the Wiener process has less error in predicting the life of the high-pressure valve compared with the life of the high-pressure valve predicted by the ARIMA model, proving the validity and accuracy of the Wiener process degradation model in the work of predicting the life of high-pressure valve.
Key words high-pressure valve; Wiener process degradation model; ARIMA model; life prediction
0 引言
高压阀作为深海化作业的关键部件之一,广泛应用于海军装备系统中,用来控制舰船载水仓与外界海水的交流。与常规环境条件相比,高压阀在深海极限环境条件下,具有工作压力大、密封要求高、材料抗腐蚀能力强等特点,其可靠性直接影响海军装备的性能发挥。因此,探索高压阀的寿命预测对深海海军装备的发展意义重大。
目前,Wiener过程模型是基于性能退化数据可靠性评估模型中应用最广的模型之一,可以更好地描述退化过程中存在的不确定因素。Tang等[1]通过退化轨迹以及伪失效阈值,得到了退化模型的伪寿命数据,建立了Wiener过程退化模型,并提出一种改进的极大似然估计法来估计可靠度函数中的未知参数。Ye等[2]结合非线性退化数据,在原Wiener过程退化模型的基础上,提出带测量误差的Wiener过程退化模型。王小林等[3]Y合非单调退化数据,提出了分阶段Wiener-Einstein退化模型。彭宝华[4]给出了一元和多元Wiener过程建模的可靠性评估模型,并采用贝叶斯法对模型中的未知参数进行评估。根据Wiener过程的首达时间服从逆高斯分布,王泰[5]建立了漂移参数和扩散参数均为恒定值的Wiener过程退化模型。杨斌[6]提出一种基于Wiener过程考虑关键性能退化数据的评估模型。张云等[7]针对数控转台性能退化过程较为缓慢且存在波动的特点,采用Wiener过程进行数学建模。齐建军等[8]基于Wiener过程,建立了以累积工作时间和备用时间为自变量模型,对加注泵进行了寿命预测。
nlc202209201316
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